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If we are to achieve deep cuts in emissions in line with keeping a 1.5°C pathway in reach, there can be no sectoral exceptions. The steel sector has to rapidly decarbonize. Every year roughly 2 billion tons of steel are produced, contributing to around 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, demand is projected to increase to over 2.5 billion tons per year by 2050, with the bulk of growth in emerging economies.

This demand increase comes at a point when steel sector emissions need to fall fast to bring the sector in line with a Paris-compatible net-zero by 2050 trajectory. While momentum towards decarbonization is growing, the sector is currently not on track to significantly reduce its emissions. Accelerating steel decarbonization will require going further and moving faster on all available mitigation levers with concerted policy efforts at national and international levels underpinning this shift.

Written in partnership with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), this study examines those challenges, unpacking for the first time at global and regional levels the implications for steel decarbonization of a 1.5°C compatible transformation pathway. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we explore the gap between current policy trajectories and 1.5°C consistent pathways and the role of key technologies and demand-side measures in achieving accelerated steel decarbonization. We draw out policy implications at the global level and in the six largest steel producing regions: China, Europe, India, Japan, South Korea, and the US.

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