| 来源类型 | Journal Article in Environment Systems & Decisions |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| Market-Based Methods for Monetizing Uncertainty Reduction | |
| Roger Cooke | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-11-13 |
| 出处 | Environment Systems & Decisions |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | New measurement systems are often expensive and need a solid economic justification. Traditional tools based on the value of information are sometimes difficult to apply. When risks are traded in a market, it may be possible to use market instruments to monetize the reductions in uncertainty. This paper illustrates such market-based methods with a satellite system designed to reduce uncertainty in predicting soil moisture in the USA. Soil moisture is a key variable in managing agricultural production and predicting crop yields. Using data on corn and soybean futures, we find that a 30% reduction in the weather-related component of uncertainty in corn and soybean futures pricing yields a yearly US consumer surplus of $1.44 billion. The total present value of information from the satellite system for the USA—calculated with a 3% discount rate—is about $22 billion, assuming the system is in operation for 20 years. The global value of the improvements in weather forecasting could be $63 billion. |
| 主题 | Risk Analysis and Uncertainty,Climate Finance and Financial Risk |
| URL | https://www.rff.org/publications/journal-articles/market-based-methods-monetizing-uncertainty-reduction/ |
| 来源智库 | Resources for the Future (United States) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/588243 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Roger Cooke. Market-Based Methods for Monetizing Uncertainty Reduction. 2019. |
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