| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30357 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30357 |
| What Do Long Data Tell Us About the Inflation Hike Post COVID-19 Pandemic? | |
| Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé; Martín Uribe | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-08-15 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | To what extent is the recent spike in inflation driven by a change in its permanent component? We estimate a semi-structural model of output, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in the United States over the period 1900-2021. The model predicts that between 2019 and 2021 the permanent component of inflation rose by 51 basis points. If instead we estimate the model using postwar data (1955--2021), the permanent component of inflation is predicted to have increased by 238 basis points. A possible interpretation of this finding is that the model estimated on the shorter sample assigns a larger increase in the permanent component of inflation because the period 1955-2021 does not contain sudden sparks in inflation like the one observed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic but only gradual ones---the great inflation of the 70s took more than 10 years to build up. By contrast, the period 1900-1954 is plagued with sudden inflation hikes---including one around the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic---which the estimated model endogenously recalls and uses to interpret inflation around the COVID-19 episode. This result suggests that prewar data might be of use to understand recent inflation dynamics. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30357 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/588030 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé,Martín Uribe. What Do Long Data Tell Us About the Inflation Hike Post COVID-19 Pandemic?. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30357.pdf（151KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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