| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30165 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30165 |
| The Fertility Consequences of Air Pollution in China | |
| Xuwen Gao; Ran Song; Christopher Timmins | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-06-20 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We incorporate pollution exposure into Becker’s “Quantity-Quality” (Q-Q) model of fertility and quantify how air pollution distorts individuals’ fertility behaviors in China. We document a robust pattern in which increased pollution over time negatively affects the fertility of ethnic Han people, who comprise approximately 92% of the Chinese population. These patterns are evident in both cross-sectional and panel data, when instrumenting for pollution using distant coal-fired plants upwind of cities or thermal inversions that trap pollution. Consistent with the stylized Q-Q model of fertility, we find that increased pollution drives up the parental expenditure per child, which increases the shadow price associated with the number of children and reduces fertility. Consistent with the model, we also find that the fertility choices of people who tend to have higher demand for child quality are significantly more sensitive to pollution changes. Pollution does not have a meaningful effect on the fertility of ethnic minorities, which can also be explained under the Q-Q framework. |
| 主题 | Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30165 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587839 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xuwen Gao,Ran Song,Christopher Timmins. The Fertility Consequences of Air Pollution in China. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30165.pdf（1129KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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