| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30116 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30116 |
| Comparing Past and Present Inflation | |
| Marijn A. Bolhuis; Judd N. L. Cramer; Lawrence H. Summers | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-06-06 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that are more consistent with current practices and expenditure shares for the post-war period. Using these series, we find that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular, the rate of core CPI disinflation caused by Volcker-era policies is significantly lower when measured using today’s treatment of housing: only 5 percentage points of decline instead of 11 percentage points in the official CPI statistics. To return to 2 percent core CPI inflation today will thus require nearly the same amount of disinflation as achieved under Chairman Volcker. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30116 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587788 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marijn A. Bolhuis,Judd N. L. Cramer,Lawrence H. Summers. Comparing Past and Present Inflation. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30116.pdf（2494KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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