| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w30000 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 30000 |
| The US COVID-19 Baby Bust and Rebound | |
| Melissa Schettini Kearney; Phillip B. Levine | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-05-02 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper documents how the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. affected birth rates. We review the economics of fertility, describing the evidence that would predict a COVID baby bust. We then use Vital Statistics birth data to estimate the size of that bust and its rebound, for the country as a whole and separately for each state, and relate those changes to state-level factors. The onset of the pandemic in the late winter and early spring of 2020 resulted in 62,000 fewer conceptions leading to a live birth. This baby bust was followed by a rebound of 51,000 conceptions later that year, leading to a small net reduction in births conceived in 2020. We also find that a larger increase in the aggregate unemployment rate, a larger reduction in household spending, and higher cumulative COVID caseloads were associated with larger baby busts in the first part of the year. Births rebounded more in states that saw a larger improvement in the labor market and household spending. COVID caseloads played a smaller role. We conclude the paper by observing that these changes pale in comparison to the large decline in US birth rates that has occurred over the past 15 years. |
| 主题 | Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w30000 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587673 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Melissa Schettini Kearney,Phillip B. Levine. The US COVID-19 Baby Bust and Rebound. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w30000.pdf（426KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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