全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The Savings Glut of the Old: Population Aging, the Risk Premium, and the Murder-Suicide of the Rentier

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w29944
来源ID	Working Paper 29944
	The Savings Glut of the Old: Population Aging, the Risk Premium, and the Murder-Suicide of the Rentier
	Joseph Kopecky; Alan M. Taylor
发表日期	2022-04-18
出版年	2022
语种	英语
摘要	Population aging has been linked to a global savings glut and a decline in safe real interest rates. Conversely, risky real returns have not fallen as much, if at all, with equity risk premia on the rise. An existing literature can explain changes in safe rates using demographics. We go further to account for divergent returns on different assets as well as the underlying surge in the wealth-income ratio and its asset composition. Empirical evidence from historical panel data shows that demographic shifts are correlated with asset returns and risk premia. We build a heterogeneous agent life-cycle model with two assets (a safe bond and equity) and with aggregate risk. Aging demographics can help to simultaneously explain three key trends: the rising wealth-income ratio, the falling risk free rate, and an increasing risk premium. The shifts exert less pressure on risky returns as high-wealth elderly reallocate away from equities: aging makes retirement saving a “crowded trade” but more so for bonds. Projecting our model to 2050, aging pushes the safe rate below zero, but the risk premium remains elevated, as post-boomer demographics push asset returns to unprecedented and persistently low levels.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Money and Interest Rates ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w29944
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587618
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Joseph Kopecky,Alan M. Taylor. The Savings Glut of the Old: Population Aging, the Risk Premium, and the Murder-Suicide of the Rentier. 2022.

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文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w29944.pdf（660KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览