| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29849 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29849 |
| Evidence on Retrieved Context: How History Matters | |
| William N. Goetzmann; Akiko Watanabe; Masahiro Watanabe | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-03-21 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper tests the retrieved context model of Wachter and Kahana (2019) using a long-term panel of economic forecasts by participants in the Livingston Survey. Events in historical time contribute additional explanatory power to a relative time series model. Historical precedents for current macroeconomic conditions appear to be more relevant for extreme quantile forecasts. The results are consistent with the use of the retrieved context mechanism for formulating expectations about asset prices. They also suggest that historical events, not just lagged variables in relative time, matter in economic forecasting. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Financial Markets |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29849 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587521 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | William N. Goetzmann,Akiko Watanabe,Masahiro Watanabe. Evidence on Retrieved Context: How History Matters. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29849.pdf（1605KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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