| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29745 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29745 |
| Land Speculation and Wobbly Dynamics with Endogenous Phase Transitions | |
| Tomohiro Hirano; Joseph E. Stiglitz | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-02-14 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper examines the global macro-dynamics of an OLG model with capital and land with rational expectations. Through the interactions between capital accumulation and land prices, the economy experiences phase transitions, endogenously moving back and forth from situations with unique and multiple momentary equilibria. Consequently, there can be a plethora of rational expectation equilibria trajectories, without any smooth convergence properties, neither converging to a steady state or even to a limit cycle—what we call “wobbly” macro-dynamics. The price of land and other key macro variables (wages, interest rates, output, consumption, wealth, capital stock) endogenously fluctuate within a well-identified range with repeated boom-bust cycles. The key disturbance to the economy is endogenous; even with rational expectations, there can be real estate booms, with increasing land prices increasingly crowding out productive investments; but such unsustainable land price booms inevitably are followed by a crash. We analyze the set of parameter values for which wobbly fluctuations occur, show that with some parameter values, the only r.e. trajectories involve such wobbly dynamics, demonstrate how changes in parameters affect global macro-dynamics, and show how policy interventions can affect stability and social welfare. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Mathematical Tools ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Financial Markets ; Public Economics ; Taxation ; Development and Growth ; Development |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29745 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587419 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tomohiro Hirano,Joseph E. Stiglitz. Land Speculation and Wobbly Dynamics with Endogenous Phase Transitions. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29745.pdf（1973KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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