| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w29713
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 29713
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| Economic Winners Versus Losers and the Unequal Pandemic Recession |
| Fernando Cirelli; Mark Gertler
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| 发表日期 | 2022-01-31
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| 出版年 | 2022
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | As is well known, during the pandemic recession firms directly exposed to the virus, i.e. the “contact” sector, contracted sharply and recovered slowly relative to the rest of the economy. Less understood is how firms that “won” by offering safer substitutes for contact sector goods have affected this unequal downturn. Using both firm and industry data, we first construct disaggregated measures of revenue growth that distinguish between contact sector losers, contact sector winners, and the non-contact sector. We show that contact sector losers contracted roughly fifty percent more than the sector average, while winners grew. Further, forecast data suggests that the gap between winners and losers will persist at least through 2022. To explain this evidence, we then develop a simple three sector New Keynesian model with (i) a sector of firms that offers safe substitutes for risky contact sector goods and (ii) learning by doing. Overall, the model captures the unequal sectoral recession. It also accounts for inflation, including the sharp runup in 2021. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics
; Business Cycles
; Money and Interest Rates
; COVID-19
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29713
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587387
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Fernando Cirelli,Mark Gertler. Economic Winners Versus Losers and the Unequal Pandemic Recession. 2022.
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文件名：
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w29713.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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