| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29372 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29372 |
| The Economics of Walking About and Predicting US Downturns | |
| David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-10-18 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Economic shocks are notoriously difficult to predict but recent research suggests qualitative metrics about economic actors’ expectations are predictive of downturns. We show consumer expectations indices from both the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict economic downturns up to 18 months in advance in the United States, both at national and at state-level. All the recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10 and sometimes many more point drops in these expectations indices. A single monthly rise of at least 0.3 percentage points in the unemployment rate also predicts recession, as does two consecutive months of employment rate declines. The economic situation in 2021 is exceptional, however, since unprecedented direct government intervention in the labor market through furlough-type arrangements has enabled employment rates to recover quickly from the huge downturn in 2020. However, downward movements in consumer expectations in the last six months suggest the economy in the United States is entering recession now (Autumn 2021) even though employment and wage growth figures suggest otherwise. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Labor Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29372 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587046 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David G. Blanchflower,Alex Bryson. The Economics of Walking About and Predicting US Downturns. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29372.pdf（373KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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