| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29329 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29329 |
| Market Size and Spatial Growth - Evidence from Germany\u2019s Post-War Population Expulsions | |
| Michael Peters | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-10-04 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Virtually all theories of economic growth predict a positive relationship between population size and productivity. In this paper I study a particular historical episode to provide direct evidence for the empirical relevance of such scale effects. In the aftermath of the Second World War about 8m ethnic Germans were expelled from their domiciles in Eastern Europe and transferred to West Germany. This inflow increased the German population by almost 20%. Using variation across counties I show that the settlement of refugees had a large and persistent effect on the size of the local population, manufacturing employment and income per capita. I show that these findings are quantitatively consistent with an idea-based model of spatial growth if population mobility is subject to frictions and productivity spillovers occur locally. The model implies that the refugee settlement increased aggregate income per capita by about 12% after 25 years and that the historical settlement rule triggered persistent industrialization of rural areas. |
| 主题 | Development and Growth ; Development ; Growth and Productivity ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Regional Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29329 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/587003 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael Peters. Market Size and Spatial Growth - Evidence from Germany\u2019s Post-War Population Expulsions. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29329.pdf（2482KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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