| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w29064 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 29064 |
| Climate Change Uncertainty Spillover in the Macroeconomy | |
| Michael Barnett; William Brock; Lars P. Hansen | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-07-26 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The design and conduct of climate change policy necessarily confronts uncertainty along multiple fronts. We explore the consequences of ambiguity over various sources and configurations of models that impact how economic opportunities could be damaged in the future. We appeal to decision theory under risk, model ambiguity and misspecification concerns to provide an economically motivated approach to uncertainty quantification. We show how this approach reduces the many facets of uncertainty into a low dimensional characterization that depends on the uncertainty aversion of a decision-maker or fictitious social planner. In our computations, we take inventory of three alternative channels of uncertainty and provide a novel way to assess them. These include i) carbon dynamics that capture how carbon emissions impact atmospheric carbon in future time periods; ii) temperature dynamics that depict how atmospheric carbon alters temperature in future time periods; iii) damage functions that quantify how temperature changes diminish economic opportunities. We appeal to geoscientific modeling to quantify the first two channels. We show how these uncertainty sources interact for a social planner looking to design a prudent approach to the social pricing of carbon emissions. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Financial Markets ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w29064 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586738 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael Barnett,William Brock,Lars P. Hansen. Climate Change Uncertainty Spillover in the Macroeconomy. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w29064.pdf（1592KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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