| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28758 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28758 |
| Trade Protection, Stock-Market Returns, and Welfare | |
| Mary Amiti; Sang Hoon Kong; David Weinstein | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-05-10 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper develops a method of using financial data to understand the expected impact of trade policy on welfare and other real variables when the policy has heterogeneous and uncertain impacts on firms. We embed a firm-level specific factors model in a consumption capital asset pricing model to map expected cash-flow movements into expected movements in productivity, wages, and welfare. Using our framework, we find that the U.S.-China trade war caused increases in uncertainty and large declines in U.S. stock prices, expected cash flows, and expected productivity. We estimate that the expected decline in U.S. welfare is 4.9 percentage points. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Trade |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28758 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586432 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mary Amiti,Sang Hoon Kong,David Weinstein. Trade Protection, Stock-Market Returns, and Welfare. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28758.pdf（1384KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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