| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28628 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28628 |
| Estimating the Financial Impact of Gene Therapy in the U.S. | |
| Chi Heem Wong; Dexin Li; Nina Wang; Jonathan Gruber; Rena M. Conti; Andrew W. Lo | |
| 发表日期 | 2021-04-12 |
| 出版年 | 2021 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We empirically assess the potential financial impact of future gene therapies on the US economy. After identifying 109 late-stage gene therapy clinical trials currently underway, we estimate the number of new and existing patients with corresponding diseases to be treated by these gene therapies, developing and applying novel mathematical models to estimate the increase in quality-adjusted life years for each approved gene therapy. We then simulate the launch prices and the expected spending for these therapies over a 15-year time horizon. Under conservative assumptions, the results of our simulation suggest that an expected total of 1.09 million patients will be treated by gene therapy from January 2020 to December 2034. The expected peak annual spending on these therapies is $25.3 billion, and the expected total spending from January 2020 to December 2034 is $306 billion. Assuming a linear pace of future gene therapy development fitted to past experience, our spending estimate increases by only 15.7% under conservative assumptions. As a proxy for the impact of expected spending on different public and private payers, we decompose the estimated annual spending by treated age group. Since experience suggests that insurers with annual budget constraints may restrict access to therapies with expected benefit to the patient, we consider various methods of payment to ensure access to these therapies even among those insured by the most budget-constrained payers. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Financial Markets ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28628 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/586323 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chi Heem Wong,Dexin Li,Nina Wang,et al. Estimating the Financial Impact of Gene Therapy in the U.S.. 2021. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28628.pdf（1010KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
