| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w28010 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 28010 |
| The Persistence of Miscalibration | |
| Michael Boutros; Itzhak Ben-David; John R. Graham; Campbell R. Harvey; John W. Payne | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-11-02 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Using 14,800 forecasts of one-year S&P 500 returns made by Chief Financial Officers over a 12-year period, we track the individual executives who provide multiple forecasts to study how their beliefs evolve dynamically. While CFOs’ return forecasts are systematically unbiased, their confidence intervals are far too narrow, implying significant miscalibration. We find that when return realizations fall outside of ex-ante confidence intervals, CFOs’ subsequent confidence intervals widen considerably. These results are consistent with a model of Bayesian learning which suggests that the evolution of beliefs should be impacted by return realizations. However, the magnitude of the updating is dampened by the strong conviction in beliefs inherent in the initial miscalibration and, as a result, miscalibration persists. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Financial Economics ; Corporate Finance ; Behavioral Finance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w28010 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585684 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael Boutros,Itzhak Ben-David,John R. Graham,et al. The Persistence of Miscalibration. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w28010.pdf（750KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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