| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27947 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27947 |
| Overreaction and Working Memory | |
| Hassan Afrouzi; Spencer Yongwook Kwon; Augustin Landier; Yueran Ma; David Thesmar | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-10-19 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study how biases in expectations vary across different settings, through a large-scale randomized experiment where participants forecast stable random processes. The experiment allows us to control the data generating process and the participants’ relevant information sets, so we can cleanly measure forecast biases. We find that forecasts display significant overreaction to the most recent observation. Moreover, overreaction is especially pronounced for less persistent processes and longer forecast horizons. We also find that commonly-used expectations models do not easily account for the variation in overreaction across settings. We provide a theory of expectations formation with imperfect utilization of past information. Our model closely fits the empirical findings. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Experimental Design ; Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Economics of Information |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27947 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585621 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hassan Afrouzi,Spencer Yongwook Kwon,Augustin Landier,et al. Overreaction and Working Memory. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27947.pdf（474KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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