| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27924 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27924 |
| Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession | |
| Jessica Gallant; Kory Kroft; Fabian Lange; Matthew J. Notowidigdo | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-10-12 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to study the labor market dynamics of the COVID-19 recession in the US. We calibrate the model using panel data from the Current Population Survey for 2001-2019, and we find that the model-based job finding rates match observed job finding rates during the entire sample period and out-of-sample up through July 2020. We also find that the Beveridge curve is well-behaved and displays little change in market tightness in 2020 once we use the calibrated model to adjust for changes in the composition of the unemployed. We then use the model to project the path of unemployment over the next 18 months. Under a range of assumptions about job losses and labor demand, our model predicts a more rapid recovery compared to a model that does not distinguish between temporary and permanent unemployment and compared to professional and academic forecasts. We find that in order to rationalize the professional forecasts of the unemployment rate, some combination of the vacancy rate, job separation rate, and recall rate of workers on temporary layoff must deteriorate substantially from current levels in the next several months. |
| 主题 | Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Unemployment and Immigration ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27924 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585598 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jessica Gallant,Kory Kroft,Fabian Lange,et al. Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics During the COVID-19 Recession. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27924.pdf（1162KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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