| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27418 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 27418 |
| Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic | |
| David Altig; Scott R. Baker; Jose Maria Barrero; Nicholas Bloom; Philip Bunn; Scarlet Chen; Steven J. Davis; Julia Leather; Brent H. Meyer; Emil Mihaylov; Paul Mizen; Nicholas B. Parker; Thomas Renault; Pawel Smietanka; Greg Thwaites | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-22 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and disagreement among professional forecasters about future GDP growth. Three results emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed, most indicators reach their highest values on record. Second, peak amplitudes differ greatly – from a rise of around 100% (relative to January 2020) in two-year implied volatility on the S&P 500 and subjective uncertainty around year-ahead sales for UK firms to a 20-fold rise in forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: Implied volatility rose rapidly from late February, peaked in mid-March, and fell back by late March as stock prices began to recover. In contrast, broader measures of uncertainty peaked later and then plateaued, as job losses mounted, highlighting the difference in uncertainty measures between Wall Street and Main Street. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; COVID-19 |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27418 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/585091 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David Altig,Scott R. Baker,Jose Maria Barrero,et al. Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w27418.pdf（788KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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