| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w26867
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 26867
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| What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios |
| Andrew Atkeson
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| 发表日期 | 2020-03-23
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| 出版年 | 2020
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | This note is intended to introduce economists to a simple SIR model of the progression of COVID-19 in the United States over the next 12-18 months. An SIR model is a Markov model of the spread of an epidemic in a population in which the total population is divided into categories of being susceptible to the disease (S), actively infected with the disease (I), and recovered (or dead) and no longer contagious (R). How an epidemic plays out over time is determined by the transition rates between these three states. This model allows for quantitative statements regarding the tradeoff between the severity and timing of suppression of the disease through social distancing and the progression of the disease in the population. Example applications of the model are provided. Special attention is given to the question of if and when the fraction of active infections in the population exceeds 1% (at which point the health system is forecast to be severely challenged) and 10% (which may result in severe staffing shortages for key financial and economic infrastructure) as well as the cumulative burden of the disease over an 18 month horizon. |
| 主题 | Econometrics
; Macroeconomics
; COVID-19
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26867
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/584540
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Andrew Atkeson. What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios. 2020.
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文件名：
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w26867.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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