| 来源类型 | Working Paper
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| 规范类型 | 报告
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| DOI | 10.3386/w26226
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| 来源ID | Working Paper 26226
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| A Requiem for \u201cBlame It on Beijing\u201d: Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses |
| Menzie D. Chinn; Hiro Ito
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| 发表日期 | 2019-09-09
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| 出版年 | 2019
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Global current account imbalances have reappeared, although the extent and distribution of these imbalances are noticeably different from those experienced in the middle of the last decade. What does that recurrence mean for our understanding of the origin and nature of such imbalances? Will imbalances persist over time? Informed by empirical estimates of the determinants of current account imbalances encompassing the period after the global recession, we find that – as before – the observable manifestations of the factors driving the global saving glut have limited explanatory power for the time series variation in imbalances. Fiscal factors determine imbalances, and have accounted for a noticeable share of the recent variation in imbalances, including in the U.S. and Germany. For advanced economies, the financial component of the current account has been playing an increasing role to determine the movements of the account. Examining observable policy actions, it is clear that net official flows have been associated with some share of imbalances, although tracing out the motivations for intervention is difficult. Looking forward, it is clear that policy can influence global imbalances, although some component of the U.S. deficit will likely remain given the U.S. role in generating safe assets. |
| 主题 | International Economics
; International Finance
; International Macroeconomics
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| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w26226
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| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583898
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Menzie D. Chinn,Hiro Ito. A Requiem for \u201cBlame It on Beijing\u201d: Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses. 2019.
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文件名：
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w26226.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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