| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25980 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25980 |
| The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia | |
| Samuel Bazzi; Robert A. Blair; Christopher Blattman; Oeindrila Dube; Matthew Gudgeon; Richard Merton Peck | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-06-24 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We predict violence one year ahead with a range of machine learning techniques. Models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not simply autoregressive, as detailed histories of disaggregated violence perform best. Rich socio-economic data also substitute well for these histories. Even with such unusually rich data, however, the models poorly predict new outbreaks or escalations of violence. "Best case" scenarios with panel data fall short of workable early-warning systems. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25980 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583654 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Samuel Bazzi,Robert A. Blair,Christopher Blattman,et al. The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25980.pdf（631KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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