| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25894 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25894 |
| Assessing the Benefits of Long-Run Weather Forecasting for the Rural Poor: Farmer Investments and Worker Migration in a Dynamic Equilibrium Model | |
| Mark R. Rosenzweig; Christopher R. Udry | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-06-03 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The livelihoods of the majority of the world's poor depend on agriculture. They face substantial risk from fluctuations in weather conditions. Better risk, credit and savings markets can improve productivity and welfare in rural areas but entail high administrative costs. We consider a classic public good with benefits that theoretically exceed those of perfect insurance contracts – improving the skill of long-run weather forecasts. We use an equilibrium model of agricultural production and labor migration, and a variety of Indian panel datasets to assess quantitatively the effects of improvements in seasonal forecasts of monsoon weather. We find that in areas where the forecast is accurate (has “skill”) that investment, migration and rural wages respond to forecasts. We calculate that if such skill were pervasive across India, the total value of an accurate forecast for farmers and wage workers is in the tens of billions of rupees. |
| 主题 | Development and Growth ; Development ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Agriculture |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25894 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583568 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mark R. Rosenzweig,Christopher R. Udry. Assessing the Benefits of Long-Run Weather Forecasting for the Rural Poor: Farmer Investments and Worker Migration in a Dynamic Equilibrium Model. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25894.pdf（2574KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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