| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25496 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25496 |
| IQ, Expectations, and Choice | |
| Francesco D’Acunto; Daniel Hoang; Maritta Paloviita; Michael Weber | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-01-28 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Forecast errors for inflation decline monotonically with both verbal and quantitative IQ in a large and representative male population. Within individuals, inflation expectations and perceptions are autocorrelated only for men above the median by IQ (high-IQ men). High-IQ men's forecast revisions are consistent with the diagnostic-expectations framework, whereas anything goes for low-IQ men. Education levels, income, socioeconomic status, or financial constraints do not explain these results. Using ad-hoc tasks in a controlled environment, we investigate the channels behind these results. Low-IQ individuals' knowledge of the concept of inflation is low; they associate inflation with concrete goods and services instead of abstract economic concepts, and are less capable of forecasting mean-reverting processes. Differences in expectations formation by IQ feed into choice—only high-IQ men plan to spend more when expecting higher inflation as the consumer Euler equation prescribes. Our results have implications for heterogeneous-beliefs models of consumption, saving, and investment. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Economics of Information ; Behavioral Economics ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25496 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583169 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Francesco D’Acunto,Daniel Hoang,Maritta Paloviita,et al. IQ, Expectations, and Choice. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25496.pdf（739KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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