| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25402 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25402 |
| Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs | |
| Davide Furceri; Swarnali A. Hannan; Jonathan D. Ostry; Andrew K. Rose | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-12-31 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Trade ; Development and Growth ; Development |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25402 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583076 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Davide Furceri,Swarnali A. Hannan,Jonathan D. Ostry,et al. Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25402.pdf（1022KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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