| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w25370 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 25370 |
| Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India's Demonetization | |
| Gabriel Chodorow-Reich; Gita Gopinath; Prachi Mishra; Abhinav Narayanan | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-12-17 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyze a unique episode in the history of monetary economics, the 2016 Indian "demonetization." This policy made 86% of cash in circulation illegal tender overnight, with new notes gradually introduced over the next several months. We present a model of demonetization where agents hold cash both to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint and for tax evasion purposes. We test the predictions of the model in the cross-section of Indian districts using several novel data sets including: the geographic distribution of demonetized and new notes for causal inference; nightlight activity and employment surveys to measure economic activity including in the informal sector; debit/credit cards and e-wallet transactions data; and banking data on deposit and credit growth. Districts experiencing more severe demonetization had relative reductions in economic activity, faster adoption of alternative payment technologies, and lower bank credit growth. The cross-sectional responses cumulate to a contraction in employment and nightlights-based output due to demonetization of 2 p.p. and of bank credit of 2 p.p. in 2016Q4 relative to their counterfactual paths, effects which dissipate over the next few months. These cumulated effects provide a lower bound for the aggregate effects of demonetization. Our analysis rejects money non-neutrality using a large scale natural experiment, something that is yet rare in the vast literature on the effects of monetary policy. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy ; Development and Growth |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w25370 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/583044 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gabriel Chodorow-Reich,Gita Gopinath,Prachi Mishra,et al. Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India's Demonetization. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w25370.pdf（5354KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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