| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24624 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24624 |
| Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I | |
| Jose A. Lopez; Kris James Mitchener | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-05-21 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. Impulse response functions show that increased uncertainty caused a rise in inflation contemporaneously and for a few months afterward in GAPH, but this effect was absent or much more limited for the other European countries in our sample. Our results suggest that elevated economic uncertainty directly affected inflation dynamics and the incidence of hyperinflation during the interwar period. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24624 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582298 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jose A. Lopez,Kris James Mitchener. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24624.pdf（461KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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