| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w24469 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 24469 |
| Two Empirical Tests of Hypercongestion | |
| Michael L. Anderson; Lucas W. Davis | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-04-02 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | There is a widely-held view that as demand for travel goes up, this decreases not only speed but also the capacity of the road system, a phenomenon known as hypercongestion. We revisit this idea. We propose two empirical tests motivated by previous analytical models of hypercongestion. Our first test uses instrumental variables to empirically isolate the effect of travel demand on highway capacity. Our second test uses an event study analysis to measure changes in highway capacity at the onset of queue formation. We apply these tests to three highway bottlenecks in California for which detailed data on traffic flows and vehicles speeds are available. Neither test shows evidence of a reduction in highway capacity at any site during periods of high demand. Across sites and specifications we have sufficient statistical power to rule out small reductions in highway capacity. This lack of evidence of hypercongestion has important implications for travel supply and demand models and raises questions about highway metering lights and other traffic interventions aimed at regulating demand. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Public Economics ; Taxation ; Regional and Urban Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w24469 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/582143 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael L. Anderson,Lucas W. Davis. Two Empirical Tests of Hypercongestion. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w24469.pdf（987KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
