| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w22143 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 22143 |
| Crash Beliefs From Investor Surveys | |
| William N. Goetzmann; Dasol Kim; Robert J. Shiller | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-04-11 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Historical data suggest that the base rate for a severe, single-day stock market crash is relatively low. Surveys of individual and institutional investors, conducted regularly over a 26-year period in the United States, show that they assess the probability to be much higher. We examine factors influencing investor responses and test the role of media influence, finding evidence consistent with an availability bias. Adverse market events made salient by financial press are associated with higher subjective crash probabilities. Exogenous shocks related to earthquakes are also associated with higher probabilities. Finally, subjective crash probabilities are negatively associated with mutual fund flows. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Financial Economics ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Financial Institutions |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w22143 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579817 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | William N. Goetzmann,Dasol Kim,Robert J. Shiller. Crash Beliefs From Investor Surveys. 2016. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w22143.pdf（1234KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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