| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w21818 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 21818 |
| The Welfare Cost of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security | |
| Erzo F.P. Luttmer; Andrew A. Samwick | |
| 发表日期 | 2015-12-21 |
| 出版年 | 2015 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Policy uncertainty can reduce individual welfare when individuals have limited opportunities to mitigate or insure against consumption fluctuations induced by the policy uncertainty. For this reason, policy uncertainty surrounding future Social Security benefits may have important welfare costs. We field an original survey to measure the degree of policy uncertainty in Social Security and to estimate the impact of this uncertainty on individual welfare. On average, our survey respondents expect to receive only about 60 percent of the benefits they are supposed to get under current law. We document the wide variation around the expectation for most respondents and the heterogeneity in the perceived distributions of future benefits across respondents. This uncertainty has real costs. Our central estimates show that on average individuals would be willing to forego around 6 percent of the benefits they are supposed to get under current law to remove the policy uncertainty associated with their future benefits. This translates to a risk premium from policy uncertainty equal to 10 percent of expected benefits. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w21818 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/579492 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Erzo F.P. Luttmer,Andrew A. Samwick. The Welfare Cost of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security. 2015. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w21818.pdf（1653KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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