| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w20324 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 20324 |
| Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration | |
| Alan S. Blinder; Mark W. Watson | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-07-24 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The U.S. economy has grown faster--and scored higher on many other macroeconomic metrics--when the President of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican. For many measures, including real GDP growth (on which we concentrate), the performance gap is both large and statistically significant, despite the fact that postwar history includes only 16 complete presidential terms. This paper asks why. The answer is not found in technical time series matters (such as differential trends or mean reversion), nor in systematically more expansionary monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats. Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior TFP performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future. Many other potential explanations are examined but fail to explain the partisan growth gap. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w20324 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/577997 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alan S. Blinder,Mark W. Watson. Presidents and the U.S. Economy: An Econometric Exploration. 2014. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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