| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w19504 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 19504 |
| How Much Do Official Price Indexes Tell Us about Inflation? | |
| Jessie Handbury; Tsutomu Watanabe; David E. Weinstein | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-10-04 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Official price indexes, such as the CPI, are imperfect indicators of inflation calculated using ad hoc price formulae different from the theoretically well-founded inflation indexes favored by economists. This paper provides the first estimate of how accurately the CPI informs us about "true" inflation. We use the largest price and quantity dataset ever employed in economics to build a Törnqvist inflation index for Japan between 1989 and 2010. Our comparison of this true inflation index with the CPI indicates that the CPI bias is not constant but depends on the level of inflation. We show the informativeness of the CPI rises with inflation. When measured inflation is low (less than 2.4% per year) the CPI is a poor predictor of true inflation even over 12-month periods. Outside this range, the CPI is a much better measure of inflation. We find that the U.S. PCE Deflator methodology is superior to the Japanese CPI methodology but still exhibits substantial measurement error and biases rendering it a problematic predictor of inflation in low inflation regimes as well. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w19504 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/577177 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jessie Handbury,Tsutomu Watanabe,David E. Weinstein. How Much Do Official Price Indexes Tell Us about Inflation?. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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