| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16143 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16143 |
| Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data | |
| Ruediger Bachmann; Steffen Elstner; Eric R. Sims | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-06-24 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | What is the impact of time-varying business uncertainty on economic activity? Using partly confidential business survey data from the U.S. and Germany in structural VARs, we find that positive innovations to business uncertainty lead to prolonged declines in economic activity. In contrast, their high-frequency impact is small. We find no evidence of the "wait-and-see"-effect - large declines of economic activity on impact and subsequent fast rebounds - that the recent literature associates with positive uncertainty shocks. Rather, positive innovations to business uncertainty have effects similar to negative business confidence innovations. Once we control for their low-frequency effect, we find little statistically or economically significant impact of uncertainty innovations on activity. We argue that high uncertainty events are a mere epiphenomenon of bad economic times: recessions breed uncertainty. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16143 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573817 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ruediger Bachmann,Steffen Elstner,Eric R. Sims. Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16143.pdf（378KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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