| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w14630 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 14630 |
| Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows | |
| Eric M. Leeper; Todd B. Walker; Shu-Chun Susan Yang | |
| 发表日期 | 2009-01-22 |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Fiscal foresight -- the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future -- is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. Simple theoretical examples show that foresight produces equilibrium time series with nonfundamental representations, which misalign the agents' and the econometrician's information sets. Economically meaningful shocks to taxes, therefore, cannot generally be extracted from statistical innovations in conventional ways. Econometric analyses that fail to align agents' and the econometrician's information sets can produce distorted inferences about the effects of tax policies. The paper documents the sensitivity of econometric inferences of tax effects to details about how tax information flows into the economy. We show that alternative assumptions about the information flows that give rise to fiscal foresight can reconcile the diverse empirical findings in the literature on anticipated tax changes. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w14630 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/572333 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Eric M. Leeper,Todd B. Walker,Shu-Chun Susan Yang. Fiscal Foresight and Information Flows. 2009. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w14630.pdf（540KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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