| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w12079 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 12079 |
| Why Have Business Cycle Fluctuations Become Less Volatile? | |
| Andres Arias; Gary D. Hansen; Lee E. Ohanian | |
| 发表日期 | 2006-03-06 |
| 出版年 | 2006 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper shows that a standard Real Business Cycle model driven by productivity shocks can successfully account for the 50 percent decline in cyclical volatility of output and its components, and labor input that has occurred since 1983. The model is successful because the volatility of productivity shocks has also declined significantly over the same time period. We then investigate whether the decline in the volatility of the Solow Residual is due to changes in the volatility of some other shock operating through a channel that is absent in the standard model. We therefore develop a model with variable capacity and labor utilization. We investigate whether government spending shocks, shocks that affect the household's first order condition for labor, and shocks that affect the household's first order condition for saving can plausibly account for the change in TFP volatility and in the volatility of output, its components, and labor. We find that none of these shocks are able to do this. This suggests that successfully accounting for the post-1983 decline in business cycle volatility requires a change in the volatility of a productivity-like shock operating within a standard growth model. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w12079 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569732 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Andres Arias,Gary D. Hansen,Lee E. Ohanian. Why Have Business Cycle Fluctuations Become Less Volatile?. 2006. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w12079.pdf（151KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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