| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP17395 |
| DP17395 International trade spillovers from domestic COVID-19 lockdowns | |
| Shekhar Aiyar; Davide Malacrino; Adil Mohommad; Andrea Presbitero | |
| 发表日期 | 2022-06-19 |
| 出版年 | 2022 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health preparedness of trade partners, suggesting that pandemic-response policies have international spillovers. Bilateral product-level data covering about 95 percent of global goods trade reveals sizable negative international spillovers to trade from supply disruptions due to domestic lockdowns. These international spillovers accounted for up to 60 percent of the observed decline in trade in the early phase of the pandemic, but their effect was short-lived, concentrated among goods produced in key global value chains, and mitigated by the availability of remote working and the size of the fiscal response to the pandemic. |
| 主题 | International Trade and Regional Economics |
| 关键词 | Trade Spillover effects Lockdown Covid-19 |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp17395 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546459 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shekhar Aiyar,Davide Malacrino,Adil Mohommad,et al. DP17395 International trade spillovers from domestic COVID-19 lockdowns. 2022. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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