全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP14600 The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How large is the transfer multiplier?

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP14600
	DP14600 The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How large is the transfer multiplier?
	Christian Bayer; Benjamin Born; Ralph Luetticke; Gernot Müller
发表日期	2022-05-04
出版年	2022
语种	英语
摘要	In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, large parts of the economy were locked down and, as a result, households' income risk rose sharply. At the same time, policy makers put forward the largest stimulus package in history. In the U.S., it amounted to $2 trillion, a quarter of which represented transfer payments to households. To the extent that such transfers were i) announced in advance and ii) conditional on recipients being unemployed, they mitigated income risk associated with the lockdown - in contrast to unconditional transfers. We develop a baseline scenario for a COVID-19 recession in a medium-scale HANK model and use counterfactuals to quantify the impact of transfers. For the short run, we find large differences in the transfer multiplier: it is negligible for unconditional transfers and about unity for conditional transfers. Overall, we find that the transfers reduced the output loss due to the pandemic by some 2 percentage points at its trough.
主题	Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词	Covid-19 Coronavirus Cares act Fiscal policy Stimulus Conditional transfer Transfer multiplier Lockdown Quarantine
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp14600-2
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/546290
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Christian Bayer,Benjamin Born,Ralph Luetticke,et al. DP14600 The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How large is the transfer multiplier?. 2022.