| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14613 |
| DP14613 Optimal COVID-19 Quarantine and Testing Policies | |
| Facundo Piguillem; Liyan Shi | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-09 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Many countries are taking measures stopping productive activities to slow down the spread of COVID-19. At times these measures have been criticized as being excessive and too costly. In this paper we make an attempt to understand the optimal response to an infectious disease. We find that the observed policies are very close to a simple welfare maximization problem of a planner who tries to stop the diffusion of the disease. These extreme measures seem optimal in spite of the high output cost that it may have in the short run, and for various curvatures of the welfare function. The desire for cost smoothing reduces the intensity of the optimal quarantine while extending it for longer, but it still amounts to reducing economic activity by at least 40%. We then study the possibility of either complementing or substituting the quarantine policy with random testing. We find that testing is a very close substitute of quarantine and can substantially reduce the need for indiscriminate quarantines. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Covid-19 Optimal quarantine Optimal testing Welfare cost of quarantines |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14613-0 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543795 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Facundo Piguillem,Liyan Shi. DP14613 Optimal COVID-19 Quarantine and Testing Policies. 2020. |
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