| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14690 |
| DP14690 Unexpected Effects: Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation | |
| Pontus Rendahl; Lukas B. Freund | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-01 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper studies the role of uncertainty in a search-and-matching framework with risk-averse households. A mean-preserving spread to future productivity contracts current economic activity even in the absence of nominal rigidities, although the effect is reinforced by the presence of the latter. That is, uncertainty shocks carry both contractionary demand- and supply effects. The reason is that a more uncertain future increases the precautionary behavior of households, which reduces interest rates and contracts demand. At the same time, as future asset prices becomes more volatile and positively covary with aggregate consumption, households demand a larger risk premium, which puts negative pressure on current asset values and thereby contracts supply. Thus, in comparison to a pure negative demand shock, an uncertainty shock puts less deflationary pressure on the economy and, as a result, renders a flatter Phillips curve. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Uncertainty Unemployment inflation Search frictions |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14690 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543607 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pontus Rendahl,Lukas B. Freund. DP14690 Unexpected Effects: Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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