| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14612 |
| DP14612 On the Optimal "Lockdown" During an Epidemic | |
| Martin Gonzalez-Eiras; Dirk Niepelt | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-04-14 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy reflects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care sector, and the severity of output losses due to a lockdown. In our baseline specification a Covid-19 shock as currently experienced by the US optimally triggers a reduction in economic activity by two thirds, for about 50 days, or approximately 9.5 percent of annual GDP. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics and Growth ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Epidemic Pandemic Lockdown Social distancing Production shortfall Health care system Covid-19 Sir model Logistic model |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14612 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543522 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Martin Gonzalez-Eiras,Dirk Niepelt. DP14612 On the Optimal "Lockdown" During an Epidemic. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
