全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP14607 Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic: Evaluating the "Swedish Solution''

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP14607
	DP14607 Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic: Evaluating the "Swedish Solution''
	Dirk Krueger; Harald Uhlig; Taojun Xie
发表日期	2020-04-12
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	In this paper, we argue that endogenous shifts in private consumption behavior across sectors of the economy can act as a potent mitigation mechanism during an epidemic or when the economy is re-opened after a temporary lockdown. We introduce a SIR epidemiological model into a neoclassical production economy in which goods are distinguished by the degree to which they can be consumed at home rather than in a social, possibly contagious context. We demonstrate that within the model the ``Swedish solution'' of letting the epidemic play out without government intervention and allowing agents to shift their consumption behavior towards relatively safe sectors can lead to substantial mitigation of the economic and human costs of the COVID-19 crisis. We estimate the model on Swedish health data and then show that compared to a model in which sectors are assumed to be homogeneous in their infection risk, as in Eichenbaum, Rebelo, and Trabandt (2020), endogenous sectoral reallocation avoids more than 2/3 of the decline in aggregate output and consumption, and at the same time induces a dynamics of weekly death that accords very well with the matching and of the number of deaths within one year. Our analysis implies case fatality rates below 0.2 percent and a limit of less than 800 deaths per million for Sweden. We also characterize the allocation a social planner would choose that can dictate sectoral consumption patterns and demonstrate that the laissez-faire outcome with sectoral reallocation, while mitigating the economic and health crisis, still implies suboptimally many deaths and too massive a decline in economic activity.
主题	Labour Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations ; Public Economics
关键词	Epidemic Coronavirus Macroeconomics Sectoral substitution
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp14607-0
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543515
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dirk Krueger,Harald Uhlig,Taojun Xie. DP14607 Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic: Evaluating the "Swedish Solution''. 2020.