| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14580 |
| DP14580 Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions | |
| Christiane Baumeister; Dimitris Korobilis; Thomas K. Lee | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-04-07 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper evaluates alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of the most useful indicators that has been proposed in the literature. However, by combining measures from a number of different sources we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and new measures for assessing future tightness of energy demand and expected oil price pressures. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Energy demand Forecasting stochastic volatility Oil price pressures Petroleum consumption State of the world economy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14580 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543487 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christiane Baumeister,Dimitris Korobilis,Thomas K. Lee. DP14580 Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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