| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14539 |
| DP14539 Cognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs | |
| Nils Grevenbrock; Max Groneck; Alexander Ludwig; Alexander Zimper | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-03-28 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper investigates the roles psychological biases play in deviations between subjective survival beliefs (SSBs) and objective survival probabilities (OSPs). We model deviations between SSBs and OSPs through age-dependent inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions. Our estimates suggest that implied measures for cog- nitive weakness increase and relative optimism decrease with age. We document that direct measures of cognitive weakness and optimism share these trends. Our regression analyses confirm that these factors play strong quantitative roles in the formation of subjective survival beliefs. Our main finding is that cognitive weakness rather than op- timism is an increasingly important contributor to the well-documented overestimation of survival chances in old age. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics and Growth ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Subjective survival beliefs Probability weighting function Conrmatory bias Cognition Optimism Pessimism |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14539 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543444 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nils Grevenbrock,Max Groneck,Alexander Ludwig,et al. DP14539 Cognition, Optimism and the Formation of Age-Dependent Survival Beliefs. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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