| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14120 |
| DP14120 Learning from House Prices: Amplification and Business Fluctuations | |
| Gaetano Gaballo; Ryan Chahrour | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-11-13 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We provide a new theory of demand-driven business cycles based on learning from prices in an otherwise frictionless real model. In our model, house price increases caused by aggregate disturbances may be misinterpreted as a signal of improved local consumption prospects, leading households to demand more current consumption and housing. Higher demand reinforces the initial price increase in an amplification loop that drives comovement in output, labor, residential investment, and house prices even in response to aggregate supply shocks. The model's qualitative implications are consistent with observed business cycles, and it can explain apparently autonomous changes in sentiment without resorting to non-fundamental shocks. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Demand shocks House prices Imperfect information Animal spirits |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14120-0 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543009 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gaetano Gaballo,Ryan Chahrour. DP14120 Learning from House Prices: Amplification and Business Fluctuations. 2019. |
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