| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13160 |
| DP13160 Unequal Gains, Prolonged Pain: A Model of Protectionist Overshooting and Escalation | |
| Emily Blanchard; Gerald Willmann | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-09-06 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a model of democratic political responses to macroeconomic shocks in the short and long run. We show that when economic adjustment is slower than potential political change, exogenous changes in the global marketplace can trigger populist surges in favor of distortionary economic policies. Applied to trade policy, our model demonstrates that an exogenous terms-of-trade improvement or skill-biased technological change will lead to a spike in protectionism that blunts the younger generation's incentive to acquire education. In the long run, the initial surge in protectionism will gradually diminish if and only if education enables less-skilled workers to catch up with the overall economy. The more unequal the initial distribution of human capital, the greater and longer-lasting the protectionist backlash will be: unequal gains, prolonged pain. Evidence on key data markers suggested by the model exhibits patterns consistent with recent populist support for Brexit and Trump. |
| 主题 | International Trade and Regional Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth |
| 关键词 | Populism Protectionism Overshooting Dynamic political economy Human capital Education Overlapping generations Endogenous tari |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13160 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541963 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Emily Blanchard,Gerald Willmann. DP13160 Unequal Gains, Prolonged Pain: A Model of Protectionist Overshooting and Escalation. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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