| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12683 |
| DP12683 Turbulence and Unemployment in Matching Models | |
| Lars Ljungqvist; Thomas Sargent; Isaac Baley | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-02-04 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Ljungqvist and Sargent (1998, 2008) show that worse skill transition probabilities for workers who suffer involuntary layoffs (i.e., increases in turbulence) generate higher unemployment in a welfare state. den Haan, Haefke and Ramey (2005) challenge this finding by showing that if higher turbulence means that voluntary quits are also exposed to even a tiny risk of skill loss, then higher turbulence leads to lower unemployment within their matching model. We show (1) that there is no such brittleness of the positive turbulence-unemployment relationship in the matching model of Ljungqvist and Sargent (2007) even if we add such “quit turbulence”, and (2) that if den Haan et al. had calibrated their productivity distribution to fit observed unemployment patterns that they miss, then they too would have found a positive turbulence-unemployment relationship in their model. Thus, we trace den Haan et al.’s finding to their assuming a narrower productivity distribution than Ljungqvist and Sargent had. Because den Haan et al. assume a distribution with such narrow support that it implies small returns to reallocating labor, even a small mobility cost shuts down voluntary separations. But that means that the imposition of a small layoff cost in tranquil times has counterfactually large unemployment suppression effects. When the parameterization is adjusted to fit historical observations on unemployment and layoff costs, a positive relationship between turbulence and unemployment reemerges. |
| 主题 | Labour Economics ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Matching model Skills Turbulence Unemployment Layoffs Quits Layoff costs |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12683 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541495 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lars Ljungqvist,Thomas Sargent,Isaac Baley. DP12683 Turbulence and Unemployment in Matching Models. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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