| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP12564 |
| DP12564 A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation | |
| Lucrezia Reichlin; Thomas Hasenzagl; Filippo Pellegrino; Giovanni Ricco | |
| 发表日期 | 2018-01-04 |
| 出版年 | 2018 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A view often expressed by the Fed is that three components matter in inflation dynamics: a trend anchored by long run inflation expectations; a cycle connecting nominal and real variables; and oil prices. This paper proposes an econometric structural model of inflation formalising this view. Our findings point to a stable expectational trend, a sizeable and well identified Phillips curve and an oil cycle which, contrary to the standard rational expectation model, affects inflation via expectations without being reflected in the output gap. The latter often overpowers the Phillips curve. In fact, the joint dynamics of the Phillips curve cycle and the oil cycles explain the inflation puzzles of the last ten years. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | inflation Oil prices Expectations Phillips curve |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp12564 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/541375 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lucrezia Reichlin,Thomas Hasenzagl,Filippo Pellegrino,et al. DP12564 A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation. 2018. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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