G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP2961
DP2961 Forecasting and Turning Point Predictions in a Bayesian Panel VAR Model
Fabio Canova; Matteo Ciccarelli
发表日期2001-09-29
出版年2001
语种英语
摘要A key result of a recent literature that focuses on the global consequences of Taylor-type interest rate feedback rules is that such rules, in combination with the zero-bound on nominal interest rates, can lead to unintended liquidity traps. An immediate question posed by this result is whether the government could avoid liquidity traps by ignoring the zero-bound, that is, by threatening to set the nominal interest rate at a negative value should the inflation rate fall below a certain threshold. This Paper shows that even if the government could credibly commit to setting the interest rate at a negative value, self-fulfilling liquidity traps can still emerge. That is, deflationary equilibria originating arbitrarily near the intended equilibrium and leading to low (possibly zero) interest rates and low (and possibly negative) rates of inflation cannot be ruled out by lifting the zero-bound on the monetary policy rule. This result obtains in models with flexible and sticky prices and under continuous and discrete time.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Taylor rules Liquidity traps Zero-bound on nominal interest rates
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp2961
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532007
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Fabio Canova,Matteo Ciccarelli. DP2961 Forecasting and Turning Point Predictions in a Bayesian Panel VAR Model. 2001.
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