| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP2961 |
| DP2961 Forecasting and Turning Point Predictions in a Bayesian Panel VAR Model | |
| Fabio Canova; Matteo Ciccarelli | |
| 发表日期 | 2001-09-29 |
| 出版年 | 2001 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A key result of a recent literature that focuses on the global consequences of Taylor-type interest rate feedback rules is that such rules, in combination with the zero-bound on nominal interest rates, can lead to unintended liquidity traps. An immediate question posed by this result is whether the government could avoid liquidity traps by ignoring the zero-bound, that is, by threatening to set the nominal interest rate at a negative value should the inflation rate fall below a certain threshold. This Paper shows that even if the government could credibly commit to setting the interest rate at a negative value, self-fulfilling liquidity traps can still emerge. That is, deflationary equilibria originating arbitrarily near the intended equilibrium and leading to low (possibly zero) interest rates and low (and possibly negative) rates of inflation cannot be ruled out by lifting the zero-bound on the monetary policy rule. This result obtains in models with flexible and sticky prices and under continuous and discrete time. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Taylor rules Liquidity traps Zero-bound on nominal interest rates |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp2961 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532007 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fabio Canova,Matteo Ciccarelli. DP2961 Forecasting and Turning Point Predictions in a Bayesian Panel VAR Model. 2001. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
