全球智库信息集成服务系统

Waivered recruits do not always perform worse and sometimes perform better than similar nonwaivered recruits

• Contrary to expectations, waivered recruits and recruits with a documented history of marijuana or behavioral health conditions are not uniformly riskier across all dimensions. In some cases, they are historically more likely to perform better. The results that most closely conform to expectations are in cases of recidivism, in which accessions with a specific characteristic are more likely to have negative outcomes associated with that characteristic. For example, if a recruit fails to complete the first term, recruits with a documented history of marijuana and recruits with a drug and alcohol waiver are more likely than other recruits to separate because of drug abuse.
• The performance of an accession cohort would change relatively little if waivers were increased. The same is true with an increase in the share of accessions with a documented history of marijuana or behavioral health conditions.
• The legalization of marijuana has not resulted in worse recruit outcomes, and there is no strong evidence that changes in marijuana legislation have substantially changed recruit outcomes.
• The Army likely could do more to offset cases of adverse outcomes among waivered recruits and recruits with a documented history of marijuana or behavioral health conditions. In general, having higher aptitude test scores, having Tier 1 education status (i.e., a high school diploma), or being older (age 22 or older) often fully or partially mitigated the higher likelihood of adverse effects related to performance and misconduct.

Army enlistment standards are intended to ensure that applicants are able to perform military duties successfully and to select those who are the most trainable and adaptable to service life. However, these standards might also inadvertently screen out individuals who could have had successful careers if mitigating factors had been considered. Waiver authority provides the Army with the ability to reconsider initially disqualified applicants and make them eligible to enlist.

Two trends of relevance to Army waiver policy are the dramatic expansion of the legalization of marijuana at the state level and the rising prevalence of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), anxiety disorders, and depression among children. Army standards continue to stipulate that applicants who test positive for marijuana require a waiver to be eligible for enlistment, and applicants with a history of ADHD, depression, or anxiety will not meet enlistment standards and might not even qualify for a waiver, depending on their specific case.

To provide information on how the Army can strengthen its waiver policy, especially in light of these societal trends, RAND researchers conducted empirical analyses of the performance of recent recruits who receive waivers, including (but not limited to) those with a documented history of marijuana, ADHD, or depression/anxiety. The authors also examined the extent to which increasing the share of recruits who receive waivers (or who have a documented history of marijuana, ADHD, or depression/anxiety) affects the overall performance of that accession cohort.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Data and Analytic Approach

• Chapter Three

  Analysis of Army Waivers

• Chapter Four

  Assessment of the Army's Marijuana Waiver Policy

• Chapter Five

  Assessment of the Army's Behavioral Health Waiver Policies

• Chapter Six

  Mitigating a Higher Likelihood of Adverse Outcomes

• Chapter Seven

  Implications and Recommendations for the Army

• Appendix A

  U.S. Army Waiver Codes

• Appendix B

  Descriptive Statistics and Regression Results

• Appendix C

  Recruit Selection Tool Results with Increasing the Share of Older and AFQT Category I–IIIA Recruits

• Appendix D

  Marijuana Legalization and Use and Their Effects on Health Risks, Behavior, and Performance

• Appendix E

  Trends in ADHD, Depression, and Anxiety Disorders