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Russia uses a variety of nonmilitary and military tools to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region

• Russia seeks to maintain a sphere of privileged influence in the Black Sea region through use of informational, diplomatic, economic, energy, clandestine, and military instruments.
• Russia uses hybrid tactics when overt military action is too costly or risky. But conventional military capabilities provide the essential underpinning for achieving Russia's regional goals.
• Russia's military buildup in Crimea, modernization of naval forces, and increased ground forces in the Southern Military District are designed to secure Russia's vital southwestern flank from an attack, dissuade and intimidate neighbors, and support wider power projection.

Most countries in the Black Sea region must carefully balance relations between Russia and the West

• Bulgaria is committed to Western integration but is subject to various Russian influences, which often leads it to balance relations between Moscow and the West.
• Romania is wary of Russia's intentions and military capabilities. And although it is largely resistant to malign influence, it gives high priority to countering Russian hybrid threats.
• Turkey still values the NATO guarantee but is willing to impede Allied initiatives and is systematically balancing relations between Russia and the West.
• Georgia and Ukraine are committed to Western integration and deeper defense cooperation with the United States and other allies, but they are constrained by active armed conflicts.
• Armenia is dependent on Russian security patronage but is open to diplomatic and limited security cooperation with the West.
• Azerbaijan pursues practical, measured relations with Russia and the West but can play a limited role in reducing Southern Europe's reliance on Russian energy.
• Moldova had a divided government that was seeking a middle road between Russia and the West before reorienting toward Moscow in 2019, but the nation has contributed to Western exercises and welcomed support on military reforms.

The Black Sea region is a central locus of the competition between Russia and the West for the future of Europe. The region experienced two decades of simmering conflicts even before Moscow's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and Russia has used military force against countries in the region four times since 2008. The Kremlin is seeking to establish a sphere of privileged influence over countries in the region and limit their integration into Euro-Atlantic structures while enhancing Russia's regime stability and improving military capabilities for homeland defense and wider power projection into the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Despite this instability and conflict, U.S. and European officials and analysts have not given nearly as much attention to the region's security challenges as they have to those in Northern Europe. In this report, the authors first assess how Russia is employing a variety of nonmilitary and military instruments to advance its goals. They then consider how the three North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies (Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey) and five NATO partners (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) in the Black Sea region perceive and are responding to Russia's activities and where those countries' interests align and diverge. Finally, the authors identify possible elements of a Western strategy to protect mutual interests, counter Russian malign influence and aggression, and foster regional stability.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

  Stephen J. Flanagan

• Chapter Two

  The Black Sea Region in Russia's Worldview

  Stephen J. Flanagan and the Project Team

• Chapter Three

  Russian Measures of Influence Short of Force

  Geoffrey Kirkwood and Dara Massicot

• Chapter Four

  The Military Role in Russia's Black Sea Strategy

  Clint Reach

• Chapter Five

  Romanian, Bulgarian, and Turkish Views on Russian Strategy and Posture

  Anika Binnendijk and Katherine Costello

• Chapter Six

  Western Partners on the Black Sea's Northwestern Shore: Ukraine and Moldova

  Irina A. Chindea

• Chapter Seven

  The South Caucasus and Black Sea Security

  Stephen J. Flanagan, Geoffrey Kirkwood, and the Project Team

• Chapter Eight

  Conclusions and Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy

  Stephen J. Flanagan